Most Likely Wealth Distribution

In the last post, I gave vent to all my left-wing righteousness against the growing income disparity. それからそれは私に起こった — a totally uniform wealth distribution is stochastically unlikely. 実際には, it is over seven billion times less likely than one person in the whole world holding all the wealth in the world. That brings me to the topic of this post – what is the most likely wealth distribution?

How do we attempt to answer this question? 断っておく, it is a mathematical question, not a moral one. The most moral distribution, one might think, would be to take all the wealth in the world and divide it equally among the 7.4 billion people. Borrowing the concept of phase space from statistical mechanics, this particular distribution will correspond to just one point in a 7.4 billion dimensional space. The other extreme situation – any one person holding all the wealth in the world, まったく何もないし、残り – corresponds to 7.4 billion points, and is so much more likely, which is the statement I made in the first paragraph. しかし、最も可能性が高いこれらの2つの両極端の間にある特定のディストリビューションがあるはずです. So I sat down in front of my trusted iMac, trying to figure it out.

この質問に答えること割るのいくつかの方法を考え出すに集約 nは オブジェクトに グループ (いわゆる 星やバー 問題), and then sorting and counting the number of points in the phase space, 何度も繰り返して. Not a very hard problem, それ以外で nは そして かなり大きいです, and the combinatorics involves factorials of large numbers. So you have to use Stirling’s approximation. よく, I will spare you the mathematical details and get straight to what I found.

What I found was quite surprising. The most likely situation seems to be the one in which the wealth distribution is highly skewed. The richest person would own more than 60% of the wealth, and the top 50 people would own practically everything!

So any wealth redistribution effort will have to fight the tremendous stochastic pressure in addition to our innate reluctance to part with the green stuff. Does this constitute a mathematical proof that socialism cannot work? I guess the right-wingers might take it that way. 私には, it shows a couple of other things: As the total wealth grows, the inequality will grow faster. 第二に, those who find themselves on the right side of the income divide should thank their stars more than their so called talent, hard work etc. 確か, それはすべてのことが、右側にあなたの方法を掘るのにかかります (unless you were born there, which is statistically quite unlikely), but talent, proclivity for hard work, ソフトスキル, ハードスキルなど. 状況のすべての事故があります. By the same token, if you do find yourself on the right side, で歩き回るためにあまりにも多くの理由がありません 問題を抱えた良心 — hey, somebody had to be here. Better you than somebody else, 右?

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